Sleeper Picks
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The final tune up before next week’s PLAYERS Championship tournament heads to Orlando to play in “Arnie’s Tournament” – The Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a special tournament in so many ways and one of them being that it is by invite only so the field is smaller at 120 players with the Top 70 making the weekend cut with ties after two rounds. The MDF rule comes into effect if more than 78 golfers make the first weekend cut.
Golf Sleepers This Week
That doesn't stop us from trying to pick at least one sleeper candidate, though. As we saw last year with DJ Chark, Austin Ekeler, and Darren Waller, breakouts can come in a variety of ways.
The field will have many top golfers in the world but there will be some low end players that will be some DFS players focus when looking for sleepers for the API but because the field is smaller and it is a more select field by invitation, most of the guys that you will consider for sleepers are still pretty good.
One of the most popular picks for fantasy golf fans is Tiger Woods who has won at Bay Hill 8…yes 8 times! If he plays (he has not committed yet) he will be a top fantasy golf pick. But we aren’t looking for top fantasy picks, we are looking for sleeper picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and we usually look first to GolfStats.com to see what their write up on the tournament is and who they like for their sleeper picks before we make our final lineups. We like the payouts that we get week in and week out so we suggest you give them a try and you’ll see over the course of a full PGA Tour year that you will end up with more money in your pockets than you’ve made trying to do it on your own. Use GolfStats Promo Code GOLFBONUS and get a discount when you join for a year.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Course
Bay Hill Club & Lodge par 72 - 7,381 yards
The Bay Hill Club and Lodge is a Par 72 and almost 7,400 yards but even though it is long this is not a golf course that bombers go out a dominate. Length off the tee isn’t as important as staying out of trouble which is why good iron players tend to be the more successful crew for the week. Look for ball strikers that can hit it straight down the fairway but have a great iron game that will guide their second shot into the greens.
The key to winning at Bay Hill is hitting greens and being close to the pin on the second shot matters so proximity from 150 - 200 yards is an important stat to check out. Even the long hitters will find themselves 175-200 yards away. Which lends itself to looking at the Greens in Regulation stats. GIR will be extremely important since most holes are surrounded by bunkers and/or water and it will be that second approach shot that will determine if there will be a birdie try or a scramble for par on the hole.
There are four Par 5’s at Bay Hill which are the holes golfers will be looking at for scoring opportunities. Scores in the past vary from -10 to -19 so there are plenty of chances for birdies and eagles on this course. This also leads to looking for guys that are not only good on the greens putting but scrambling will be important since most guys will be chipping out of bunkers throughout the week. The greens are a Bermuda grass surface so watch to see how guys that have played the last couple of weeks putted since they’ve played on Bermuda since hitting the Florida coast.
Remember, there only 120 golfers in the field and not the usual 156 but a normal cut line of Top 70 and ties is still in effect. Around 58% of the players will make the cut and play the weekend so when looking for sleepers, your main focus is still to find 6/6 through the cut. The advantage is that you will be picking from a solid 120 players so even your sleeper picks will be pretty decent players that all will have a legit chance of winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Summary of key Stats:
Greens in Regulation percentage (GIR%)
Strokes gained off the tee
Strokes Gained Approach > 175 yards
Strokes Gained: Approach
Ball Striking
Scrambling
Par 5 Scoring
2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament Preview
Check out our 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview.
2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleeper Picks
Sam Burns - Came close a couple of weeks ago at the Genesis Invitational to picking up his first career PGA Tour victory. He led until Sunday but fell to 3rd place when others outplayed him. He is 3-3 at the Arnold Palmer tourney and should be a solid sleeper pick to pop into your DraftKings lineups this week.
Ian Poulter - Poulter is a perfect 10-10 in cuts made at Bayhill and is more of a DFS sleeper pick this week than a bet to win outright. He started 2021 playing the European Desert swing where he was 43-MC-MC-18 in four events. He doesn’t come in riding high but his past performance here makes him a solid pick for lineups.
Sleeper Picks
Byeong Hun An - An is a perfect 5-5 at Bayhill with two Top 15 finishes. He’s played a bit better since the turn of the calendar and makes another solid sleeper pick this week with his history at the tournament. He should be a bargain cost at DraftKings when entering contests.
Nfl Sleeper Picks
For expert Arnold Palmer Sleeper Picks that could help you win money at DraftKings or FanDuel this week click on the graphic below: